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Risk Models Table

MODEL/LINKPROVIDESOUTPUTINCLUDESWHEN TO USE
Models that DO include breast density as a risk factor

Tyrer-Cuzick (IBIS)
Version 8


(Windows/PC only)

Personal risk and risk of mutation carrier

5-year, 10-year and lifetime risk (LTR) of developing breast cancer

Current age, age at menarche, height, weight, parity, age of first childbirth, age at menopause, HRT use, pathology results from prior benign or atypical breast biopsies, ovarian cancer, breast density (BI-RADS®, Volpara density, or Visual Analog Scale), Ashkenazi descent, age at diagnosis of first- and second-degree female relatives with breast or ovarian cancer and male relatives with breast cancer

Risk assessment for genetic testing (10% risk for pathogenic mutations is commonly used) or MRI screening (20% lifetime risk threshold)

Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium (BCSC)

App Link

Personal risk

5-year and 10-year risk of developing invasive breast cancer

Current age, race/ethnicity, BI-RADS® breast density, first-degree relative, pathology results from prior benign or atypical breast biopsies

Risk assessment for use of medications for prevention (tamoxifen, raloxifene, aromatase inhibitors)

Models that DO NOT include breast density as a risk factor

Gail

Personal risk

5-year and LTR of developing breast cancer

Current age, age at menarche, age at first live birth childbirth, number of first-degree relatives (mother, sisters, daughters) with breast cancer, prior benign biopsies, prior atypical biopsy and race/ethnicity.

DOES NOT INCLUDE: Age of diagnosis of relatives; not to be used to assess “high-risk” criteria for MRI screening

When considering tamoxifen or other risk-reducing medications (>1.7% 5-year risk)

NOT to be used for risk assessment for purposes of screening MRI nor for genetic testing

Penn II

Personal risk and risk of mutation carrier

LTR risk of developing breast cancer

Ashkenazi descent, number of women in family diagnosed with both breast and ovarian cancer, number of women in family diagnosed with ovarian or fallopian cancer in absence of breast cancer, number of breast cancer cases in family diagnosed < age 50, age of youngest breast cancer case in family; number of people in family with: presence of mother-daughter diagnosed with bilateral breast cancer, male breast cancer diagnosis, presence of pancreatic cancer or prostate cancer

Risk assessment for genetic testing (10% risk for pathogenic mutations is commonly used) or MRI screening (20% lifetime risk threshold)

Claus

Personal risk

LTR of developing breast cancer

Occurrence(s) of breast cancer in first-degree and second-degree female relative(s) by decade age of diagnosis

MRI screening (20% lifetime risk threshold)

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